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That Certain Feeling

By DAN ACKMAN
August 31, 2004; Page D10

'Nothing succeeds like success." Alexandre Dumas said it 150 years ago, and he said it in French. In "Confidence" (Crown Business, 402 pages, $27.50), Rosabeth Moss Kanter says much the same thing, and at much greater length.

A key to success is confidence, she writes, and it is a mighty force indeed. It "explains the culture of success and failure." It "influences the willingness to invest." More than that, confidence "shapes the ability to perform. In that sense, confidence lies at the heart of civilization."

But what is confidence and how does it work? Ms. Kanter calls it "a sweet spot between arrogance and despair," which is no help. Piling example upon example -- some from business, many from sports, a few from Nelson Mandela -- Ms. Kanter concludes that confidence is the difference between winning and losing.

Are winners confident because of their victories or are they victorious because they are confident? That may be a chicken-and-egg question, a hard one to answer. But you would think that an author ready to devote 402 pages to the subject might make the attempt.

Ms. Kanter never does, although she seems well-equipped to do so. She is a professor at Harvard Business School, the author of many books and, in her own words, "an expert on leadership, innovation, transformation and change." She touts her "broad and deep" research for this project, which included more than 300 interviews and "unusual insider access to leaders and organizations in North America, Europe, Asia, Australia, South Africa, and elsewhere around the world."

I do not fault Ms. Kanter for neglecting Antarctica. After all, she and her "research team" have plumbed the wisdom of 1,243 companies and 1,511 high-school sports coaches and athletes. Not to mention cocktail parties. "Confidence is what it's all about," the comedian Chris Tucker told Ms. Kanter at a gathering on Martha's Vineyard. Many executives and coaches -- mostly winners, but some losers, too -- are quoted agreeing with this bold sentiment.

The idea that confident people or organizations fare better in life seems unexceptionable. But it raises the question: How do losers get it without winning a little first? The long middle section of "Confidence" is devoted to turnarounds, where faltering organizations regain their footing. She discusses Continental Airlines and Seagate Technology at length but fawns especially over the job done by James M. Kilts at Gillette. "The art of turnaround leadership is knowing how to shed deadwood without killing the tree," she writes. "That takes a healer." No kidding.

Ms. Kanter scoots from one lesson to the next, noting how "winning streaks and losing streaks perpetuate themselves." Winning begets winning, except when it does not: "Success creates its own problems that make it hard to sustain....There's a danger of letting down." Streaks end. Why? "I've already said that winning is hard work," Ms. Kanter explains.

Ms. Kanter's technique is to start with a success story, work backward and discover that the secret ingredient was a leader who instilled confidence in the rank and file. The book jumps all over: In one four-page passage, she cites Duke basketball, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks, Mr. Mandela, Seagate Technology, the Philadelphia Eagles, Continental Airlines, the BBC, the Chicago Cubs, a Turkish bank and the University of Connecticut women's basketball team, with a few stops along the way. She notes struggles that the winners faced and concludes that it was confidence -- as opposed to superior talent, technology, strategy or physical resources -- that made the difference.

The UConn women are a touchstone. After years of success, the team entered the 2002-03 season ranked second to Duke. Ms. Kanter says that UConn "had nowhere near the best talent" (even though its star, Diana Taurasi, would be the number-one pick in the WNBA draft). But the team, which was incidentally undefeated to that point, beat Duke on the way to another national championship. Ms. Kanter calls the win "a clear and well-documented relationship between expectations and performance that is at the heart of self-confidence."

But is it? To make this lesson and others truly illustrative, Ms. Kanter would have to measure UConn against businesses or teams that had equal degrees of talent but less confidence and less success. But to do that, she would have to measure confidence as an independent variable, which she does not do and undoubtedly cannot. As it stands, she might as well be discussing spirit or joy or savoir-faire, or even a certain je ne sais quoi. There is, in short, nothing well-documented about her bromides and clichés.

It is fair to say that Ms. Kanter does not lack for confidence herself. Beyond hoping to help people succeed in business, her "grander goal," she declares, is "to help more people in many walks of life find the confidence to win whatever game they're playing." As such, the book combines the worst of b-school blather with self-help twaddle.

Near the end, she writes: "By now the secret of winning should be clear: Try not to lose twice in a row. I admit that sounds a little facile." Indeed it does.

Mr. Ackman is a senior columnist for Forbes.com