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June 3, 2003

In the Fray:
Nothing But Air? Shooting Skills Waning in NBA
By Dan Ackman

As the National Basketball Association finals get under way tomorrow, the players will be celebrated, quite rightly, for being faster and quicker than ever. But the game itself has rarely been slower, and shooting the basketball, the game's most basic skill, seems a lost art. This season, the NBA's overall field-goal percentage was just .442. That's as low as it's been since 1969, when Wilt Chamberlain led the league in accuracy. Twenty years ago, teams averaged 90 shots and 109 points a game. This year, they averaged 81 shots and 95 points. The last time scoring was that low was 1955 and Bill Russell was still in college.

Shooting in particular has suffered a long-term decline. With teams taking longer to shoot, one might expect them to make a higher percentage. In fact, the opposite has occurred. Field-goal percentage increased consistently from the NBA's formation in 1946, when its players hit 28% of their shots, to the 1983-84 season when the Celtics and Larry Bird won the title and the players hit 49%. Shooting accuracy has declined ever since.

The deterioration is across the board, and it extends to the NBA's best players. Allen Iverson, an all-pro guard for the Philadelphia 76ers, shot .414 this season. Twenty years ago, not one NBA starter shot so poorly. Indeed, World B. Free, a notorious gunner for the 1982-83 Cleveland Cavaliers, shot .456.

The NBA itself denies shooting skill has waned. "I'm hoping you're not going down a line that's based on statistical misinformation," says Mike Bass, a league spokesman. "That's all based on defense getting better. That's all it is. Statistics show that."

Actually, statistics are a double-edged sword. Anytime offensive numbers decline, defensive numbers improve. Still, coaches and other experts agree nearly universally that better defense is the key factor in reducing scoring and shooting accuracy. Rick Pitino, head coach at the University of Louisville, who has also coached the New York Knicks and the Boston Celtics in the NBA, for instance, says, "It's night and day as far as defense is concerned," comparing today's game to the version played in the mid-1980s, when teams averaged 110 points a game.

Mr. Pitino and others say defensive coaching is vastly improved. Defensive traps, double teaming, and advances in scouting all thwart offense. Teams routinely scrutinize the videotape to chart their opponent's tendencies. The result: "Teams are more prepared defensively than ever," says Mitch Kupchak, general manager of the Los Angeles Lakers. But why hasn't coaching improved offense at the same time? "Good question," Mr. Kupchak says. While defensive players are amazingly quick, the same guys are playing offense. Steals, one measure of defensive ability, have actually declined in line with scoring. Something else is going on.

John Wooden, the legendary former coach of the UCLA Bruins, is no fan of the NBA game, which he calls "too physical," but he does offer one theory for why accuracy is down in the college game as well as in the pros. "They like to dunk and they like to shoot long," Mr. Wooden says. "I rather have a feeling that that has had some effect." Players are fond of "showmanship" and the dunk in particular. The dunk and the three-point shot have led to a deterioration of the intermediate game, Mr. Wooden says. (The number of three point shot attempts has increased markedly, which accounts for a bit of the decline in overall shooting percentage. Three-point accuracy has also increased.)

European players seem more accurate jump shooters. Of the 13 players who made 50% of their shots this year, four are from outside the U.S. Indeed, in the 2002 World Basketball Championship, in which NBA pros placed a shocking sixth, the Americans still dominated statistically in nearly every category. They finished at or near the top in rebounds, assists, steals, blocked shots, even scoring. The one exception: shooting. There the U.S. tied for fifth. Medalists Yugoslavia, Argentina, and Germany all shot better.

Jerry West, one of the greatest scorers ever, now president of the Memphis Grizzlies, says the Europeans may shoot better because their best players join pro or club teams in their mid- or late-teens. These teams spend hours drilling the fundamentals. American college players are limited in the amount of time they can practice, and coaches tend to emphasize game situations, especially defense.

U.S. coaches favor control in general, says Kevin Loughery, a former NBA coach, now a broadcaster. NBA coaches prefer a defensive game because, "As a rule you have less control over your offense than you do over your defense." Coaches slow the offense, which allows them to call 75% of the plays from the bench. No coach can call what happens on a fast break. So even as they employ ever more athletic players, they apply the brakes. The deliberate style "puts the coach in charge," Mr. Loughery says. "That's the way the game is played now."

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Mr. Ackman, senior columnist at Forbes.com, last wrote for the Journal on the Muppets.